NEW YORK, USA—For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, the chances of former President Donald Trump winning the Electoral College have dropped below 40 percent, according to a forecast by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
The model now gives Trump a 39 per cent chance of securing victory as Vice President Kamala Harris continues to gain momentum in key polls.
FiveThirtyEight’s model, which weighs a combination of national and state polling and “fundamentals” like the economy, shows Harris with a more than 60 per cent chance of winning the election.
The shift follows strong polling for Harris in the days after the ABC debate on September 10, which has bolstered her position, particularly in battleground states.
A Shift in the Numbers
Previously, Trump had been polling near Harris, with margins close to statistical error.
When the FiveThirtyEight model relaunched after Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, Trump held a 41 percent chance of victory.
His numbers rose steadily in the weeks before the debate, but Harris has since regained the lead with strong performances in recent surveys, especially in key Midwest regions.
While Harris is polling well in certain states, such as Iowa, FiveThirtyEight’s regional weighting suggests that these numbers may not translate into carrying those states themselves.
However, her upward trend in key swing states such as Pennsylvania has been more encouraging for her campaign.
A recent Pennsylvania poll, widely considered a bellwether for the 2024 race, put Harris ahead of Trump by 48.6 percent to 45.6 percent—her best result in the state so far this month.
Mixed Forecasts for Trump
While FiveThirtyEight’s model currently favours Harris, not all forecasts align. Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, has a more optimistic outlook for Trump.
His model, run through his blog Silver Bulletin, gives Trump a 60 per cent chance of winning the election, with Harris at 38 per cent.
Silver cautioned against reading too much into the early post-debate data.
“The first post-debate polls are in, and they helped Kamala Harris very slightly in our forecast—but we’d caution against reading too much into any of this data just yet,” he wrote last week.
Despite these mixed projections, an internal Trump campaign memo revealed optimism within the Republican team.
According to a survey of nearly 1,900 likely voters across seven key battleground states, Trump holds a 3-point lead over Harris.
Long-Term Factors
The FiveThirtyEight model also incorporates long-term “fundamentals” that can influence voter behaviour, including the state of the economy, which remains a critical factor in the election.
These fundamentals are similar to the “13 keys to the White House,” a popular prediction system developed by historian Allan Lichtman, who accurately forecasts U.S. election outcomes. Lichtman is currently predicting a Harris victory in November.
What’s Next?
As the election approaches, both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in swing states like Pennsylvania, which could ultimately determine the outcome.
With polling data shifting regularly, how each candidate will fare in the crucial weeks leading up to November remains to be seen.
