A test based on how people perform on a treadmill can predict how likely they are to die within a decade, with a high degree of accuracy.
The team analysed results of 58,000 fitness tests in Detroit, Michigan – then tracked how many of the testers died within the next decade.
John Hopkins University found that gauging people’s heart rate and fitness on a treadmill can work out their risk of death – more accurately than looking at risk factors such as a family history of premature death.
For example, a 45-year-old woman with a very low fitness score has a 38% risk of dying over the next decade, whereas a 45-year-old woman with a top fitness score has a 2% risk.
The test looks at factors such as peak heart rate during a treadmill test within increasing speed and incline – more details can be found here.
‘The notion that being in good physical shape portends lower death risk is by no means new, but we wanted to quantify that risk precisely by age, gender and fitness level, and do so with an elegantly simple equation that requires no additional fancy testing beyond the standard stress test,’ says lead investigator Haitham Ahmed of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
‘Fitness level and peak heart rate reached during exercise were the greatest indicators of death risk,’ the researchers write.
‘Fitness level was the single most powerful predictor of death and survival, even after accounting for other important variables such as diabetes and family history of premature death — a finding that underscores the profound importance of heart and lung fitness.’
