A social media research to find out what and who is shaping the election was undertaken by Impact Social.
Impact Social is an independent London based company who specialises in analysis of social media and its impact on politics and policy. They want to use their expertise to provide the people of Nigeria an insight as to what their fellow citizens are thinking with regards to the presidential elections. To inform them whose messages are gaining resonance with the people and why. And for them to know who is ahead in the race for the Presidency.
Through the research, Social Impact quickly discovered that there are only two organizations having a real influence on the electorate – PDP and APC. Of the many tens of thousands of social media mentions recorded, only a small fraction where about candidates from other parties . The total numbers of which are not statistically significant.
They therefore concentrated their attention gathering all conversations on the two parties and their candidates who which will decide the election: The PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan and APC’s Muhammadu Buhari.
The chart below shows individual pieces of analysis which have been taken at different stages between 24th and 27th January 2015. At each point they analysed the PDP and APC campaigns separately providing accurate insight as to the reaction of the people towards the party messages and leaders.
The conversation is dominated by a general discussion of politics which is neither positive or negative. There are lots of “noisy” side issues being discussed, but these are not being used as a campaign platform to gain traction.
Indeed there has been some frustration voiced that APC is not focusing on important issues. It might be said that the campaign lacks consistency and content. Interestingly, momentum around endorsement and vocal support has not carried through despite being prominent on the campaign trail the week before.
If anything the lack of message penetration by APC will give encouragement to the GEJ campaign teams to keep its focus on key drivers (economy, infrastructure, agriculture and education) as it appears that APC has little impact on these issues.
This analysis was conducted using random, representative samples of over 32,000 tweets, facebook posts, blogs, forums and news sites in Nigeria which mention APC/Buhari Our analysis methodology is proven to be at least 95% accurate.
Positivity towards GEJ personally remains a key driver of the PDP campaign (70% positive / 30% negative). There are still some negative issues weighing down the GEJ camp (Buhari, Chibok, postponement of the election) but again these are “compound” with no single issue driving significant levels of negativity.
There is work to do on some of the key issues (infrastructure, education) but in this period messaging on the economy has taken up (6%) of the conversation and is seen as a key GEJ / PDP strength.
There is positive sentiment towards the PDP itself with a consistent message around support for GEJ. This period might be characterised as one of good control from the PDP / GEJ camp and shows good potential to keep pressing home the big issues Nigerians care about.
This analysis was conducted using random, representative samples of over 40,000 tweets, facebook posts, blogs, forums and news sites in Nigeria which mention PDP or GEJ. Impact Social’s analysis methodology is proven to be at least 95% accurate.
