by Jim Unah
In the last few days, reports of violent attacks at the political rallies of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, by persons and groups described either as thugs and hoodlums or supporters of the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, have made an open mockery of the Kofi Anan Peace Accord validating the last week piece, on this page, which ended on a pessimistic note that the peace deal signed, penultimate Wednesday, by President Goodluck Jonathan and General Mohammadu Buhari and the other presidential candidates of the registered political parties would not guarantee peace during the February elections, even though it was well intentioned by those who set it in motion.
The point in the distrust of the peace accord by commentators is not because peaceful assembly and non-violent conduct of elections are not the proper things to work for. It is because the major contenders for political power have all written their scripts of election violence and programmed for bloody confrontation at the conclusion of the process, should they not be declared winners. No rational political thug or hoodlum or by whatever name he might be called would go to foment trouble at political rallies if he has not been mobilised or paid or encouraged to do so by his principals, who themselves had invested everything in the electoral contest.
The foundation that has been laid by the strategic architects of the country and its political actors is one of election violence and bloody confrontation, not that of non-violence and peaceful electoral contest. As we speak, a former head of state has reportedly declared General Muhammadu Buhari winner of the February presidential election, even before the casting of ballots and the counting of the votes. What if he loses? Would there be peace? Likewise, Mr. Asari Dokubo, a dreaded Niger-Delta ex-militant, has concluded that Goodluck Jonathan must win the February presidential election, if they want peace in the country. What if Jonathan loses? Would there be peace? On the one hand, members of the PDP are flexing muzzles and swearing that the Buhari of APC cannot win any presidential election. How do they know that? Are they the voters? On the other hand, members of the APC are swearing that if Buhari fails to win, the APC will form a parallel government—never again to allow a corrupt PDP regime to rule the country. Who is right, who is wrong? Is this how to prepare for peaceful, free and fair election?
The politicians, needless to say, have aborted the conditions of peaceful, free and fair elections. It is not just about Jonathan or Buhari. It is about the nature of political competition and investment and the power structure of the country. Too much is at stake at the centre. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu identified this problem correctly in the NADECO-June 12 days. His solution then, in no mistaken terms, was: “Smash the centre!” I do not know what his thinking is on the matter now. The centre has too much power and capacity for massive corruption. Until you move power back to the federating units, no one can truly begin to correct the ills of the nation. So long as power is concentrated at the centre the way it is, so long will investment in electoral contests be massive.
A massive investment by individuals and groups in electoral contests is the foundation of the massive fraud and looting of state coffers by political actors, their godfathers, and their contractors. Failure to win a contested position, whether as a result of credible votes by the voters or by virtue of being out-rigged by the other contestant, having been allowed by law to invest massively, is the foundation of post-election violence, often spearheaded by losing candidates.
Already, allegations are being recklessly traded by the major contestants and their parties about plots to rig the February elections. The allegations are coming from the clans of the APC and the PDP. While members of the APC claim that the PDP has perfected plans to rig the February elections, members of the ruling PDP are claiming that they have uncovered the plot of the APC to hack into the vote counting computers of the Independent National Electoral Commission—INEC. Again, while the APC members appear to be speaking convincingly about the PDP plot to rig the elections, claiming that their confirmation came from former PDP master riggers now in the APC, the PDP appears to be insinuating that having bought over its alleged master riggers through party defection to the APC, the latter has dispossessed the ruling PDP of its capacity to rig elections successfully, and that rigging is now the exclusive right of the APC; as if the PDP could not replenish its stock of riggers any time it chooses. Nigerians are nobody’s fools, anyway!
The interesting aberration in all of this is that those who signed the Peace Accord are the ones breaching it. And to further complicate the matter, there are loyal APC members working and masquerading as PDP members and, conversely, there are loyal PDP members still working and masquerading as APC members. How can you have peaceful elections?
Jim Unah is a Professor & Deputy Vice-Chancellor at Premier University of São Tomé and Principe in Nigeria.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
