[dropcap]I[/dropcap] was one of the delegates training some officials of NNPC from Nigeria in the summer of 2018 in London. I was training them on Global Oil Outlook up to 2040.
I had been talking for a while and sharing slides (for up to 30 minutes) reviewing various scenarios. Suddenly one of them raised his hand and asked: “are you saying that there would be no market for Nigerian oil post-2040?” I answered in the affirmative, and I was shocked that they are not even aware of an EU-wide ban on fossil fuel which takes effect after 2040.
All the oil majors now have strategic plans to diversify their energy production mix, so that 25% of their sales would come from renewables by 2025, and continually scale this up to 100% by 2050. So, if the strategy makers aren’t aware of what goes on in the business environment, I wonder what they discuss in management meeting?!
The above is one of the reasons why the USA is aggressively selling its own oil stock based on the 2040-50 deadline date, and it is ready to do so at a discount to the forward or futures price being offered by the OPEC at any point in time.
Have you noticed that it is no longer fashionable for OPEC to cut quota? Every cut in quota is now being met by supply offered by the USA.
Sincerely I wouldn’t waste my time analysing Nigeria economic matters. I think the country is just destined to be doomed. Similar views had been expressed by Joseph Eugene Stiglitz, a nobel prize winner, when he came to visit Nigeria in 1999. Imagine Nigeria owing over $25 billion dollars in 2019 after all the work done by the Obasanjo administration?
I have never seen a more useless country than this one. In other sensible countries, all these ideas would have been debated and implemented within one month of them coming to the fore. Not in (this) Republic built on quota system, Federal Character, false population count, and revenue allocation.”
Professor Posi Tubosun, a University lecturer in the UK and resource fellow to many Muiltilateral Agencies.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
