WASHINGTON, DC, USA — US Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a six-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to a new Morning Consult poll published Tuesday, September 18, 2024.
This shift comes in the aftermath of last week’s heated presidential debate, where Harris took aim at Trump on several critical issues, impressing voters and reshaping the landscape of the 2024 election.
The poll, which surveyed 11,022 likely U.S. voters between September 13 and 15, shows Harris with 51% of support compared to Trump’s 45%.
This marks a new high for the Democratic nominee, surpassing previous polling that had the two candidates in a near-dead heat before the debate.
Debate Performance Resonates
Eli Yokley, political analyst at Morning Consult, attributed Harris’s surge to her debate performance, which resonated with a broad spectrum of voters, including a significant portion of Republicans.
“A majority of likely voters — including 1 in 5 Republicans — believe Harris won the debate, and performance appears to be crystalising her national lead over the former president,” Yokley stated in an email.
The poll reflects Harris’s strongest numbers to date, driven by increased support from key voter demographics, including Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, women, liberals, and younger voters aged 18 to 34.
Harris’s Record High Support
Morning Consult noted that Harris’s 51% share of likely voters is a “new record” for her in the head-to-head contest against Trump.
The poll’s unweighted margin of error is +/-1 percentage point, adding a degree of confidence to the findings.
“Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds, and millennials,” Morning Consult said.
Criteria for Likely Voters
To assess likely voters, Morning Consult used a 1-10 scale, with “1” indicating a respondent would not vote in the upcoming election and “10” indicating definite plans to vote. Only those who rated themselves as “8” or higher were considered likely voters.
The poll does not include responses from voters who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate, focusing solely on committed voters.
Aiming for Young Voters
Both candidates have been focusing on younger voters, a key group in the 2024 election.
Axios‘ Noah Bressner has identified this demographic as one of the largest groups of undecided or persuadable voters remaining.
Trump has targeted this bloc by making appearances on popular podcasts and attending UFC events, hoping to appeal to the “bro” vote.
Meanwhile, Harris has directed her messaging towards young women, many of whom have been increasingly aligning with progressive values, particularly on issues like reproductive rights.
Harris also received a notable boost following the debate when pop star Taylor Swift endorsed her on Instagram.
Swift’s endorsement and link to voter registration site Vote.gov reportedly drove 338,000 visits to the site within just 15 hours.
Looking Ahead
As Harris continues to enjoy positive momentum, her growing lead over Trump indicates that her campaign is striking the right tone with key voting blocs.
Eli Yokley summarised the mood, saying, “Harris is enjoying a positive news cycle among the likely electorate this year that’s earning her positive marks and aligns with her best numbers yet in the head-to-head contest” against Trump.
The race for the White House remains competitive, but with this recent surge, Harris has taken a notable step forward as the candidates head into the campaign’s final stretch.
