NEW YORK, USA – A surprising shift is emerging in the 2024 presidential race, as a growing proportion of self-identified Republicans indicate they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to a new survey conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, nine percent of likely Republican voters now back the Democratic nominee — a significant rise from five percent in the previous month.
The poll, released on Tuesday, October 8, 2024, which surveyed 3,385 likely voters between September 29 and October 6, shows Harris leading former President Donald Trump 49 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error of 2.4 points.
Despite Harris’ lead in the popular vote, the Electoral College system could still tilt the overall outcome in Trump’s favor, as it did for him in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the election.
Republicans Breaking Ranks
A number of high-profile Republicans have declared their intention to vote for Harris, with former Vice President Dick Cheney notably leading the charge.
Cheney, who served under George W. Bush, announced his endorsement in September, stating, “As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.”
In addition, a coalition of 100 former Republican members of Congress, alongside officials from the Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Trump administrations, issued a joint letter last month endorsing Harris.
They argued that Trump has demonstrated “contempt for the norms of decent, ethical, and lawful behavior.”
The Republican Exodus
David Frum, a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush, discussed this political shift during an appearance on Preet Bharara’s Stay Tuned podcast.
Frum argued that some Republicans see a Harris presidency as a necessary alternative to a second Trump term, which they fear could damage the Constitution and America’s standing in the world.
“We’re not going to like 80 percent of the domestic agenda of the Harris administration,” Frum said.
“But it’s more important to preserve the Constitution, and we trust her to do a better job of maintaining American leadership in the world.”
This sentiment reflects a broader reconfiguration of party allegiances, with Frum noting that today’s political landscape resembles the realignment of the late 1960s and early 1970s, when voter coalitions began to shift.
High-Profile Republican Endorsements
Harris has also garnered support from the children of several prominent Republicans, including Caroline Giuliani, daughter of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Claudia Conway, daughter of former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway.
Elon Musk’s estranged daughter, Vivian Wilson, has also publicly endorsed Harris.
In contrast, Trump has picked up endorsements from some disillusioned former Democrats, including Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., both of whom have been vocal critics of the Biden-Harris administration.
Gabbard, speaking at a National Guard Association conference in August, praised Trump’s foreign policy and pledged to help bring him back to the White House.
Polls and Predictions
Despite Harris’ increasing appeal among Republican voters, betting markets show Trump maintaining a narrow edge.
According to Polymarket, Trump has a 53.3 percent chance of winning the presidency, compared to 46.1 percent for Harris.
As the race intensifies in the weeks leading up to November, these shifting allegiances signal that both candidates will be vying for every vote in what promises to be a closely contested election.
