DES MOINES, USA – Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow 47% to 44% lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Iowa, according to the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Election Day.
With a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, the poll suggests a statistical tie, presenting a surprising competitiveness in a state that has leaned Republican throughout the 2024 campaign.
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. from October 28-31, indicates a shift toward Harris since the last Iowa Poll in September, which showed Trump with a slight lead at 47% to Harris’s 43%.
Iowa, a state with a mixed electoral history—supporting Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before flipping to Trump in 2016 and 2020—has seen limited high-quality polling this cycle, making this final survey particularly significant.
Demographic Shifts Favour Harris Among Key Voter Groups
The new poll reveals marked gender and age divides among likely voters.
Women in Iowa overwhelmingly support Harris, with 56% favouring her over Trump’s 36%, while men lean toward Trump, though by a slimmer margin, at 52% to Harris’s 38%.
A notable swing is also observed among independents, who now support Harris 46% to Trump’s 39%, reversing earlier polls where Trump led among this group.
Age also plays a critical role: 55% of voters aged 65 or older support Harris compared to 36% for Trump, while voters under 35 are more evenly split, with 46% backing Harris and 44% for Trump.
Few Undecided Voters in a Tightly Contested Race
The poll highlights that 91% of Iowa’s likely voters have made up their minds, with only 7% saying they could still be persuaded and a mere 2% remaining undecided.
This high level of decisiveness underscores the importance of mobilising each candidate’s base in the final stretch of the campaign.
The results reflect Iowa’s unpredictable status in the current election cycle, with both candidates vying for an edge in this traditionally Republican-leaning state.
As Election Day approaches, all eyes will be on Iowa as the race comes down to the wire.
