“A bird in hand is worth two in the bush” refers to a medieval times proverb which describes the relevance of having a lesser but certain advantage than the possibility of having a greater one which may come to nothing.
Currently a lot of voodoo columnists and websites have already projected the possible candidate that will win the 2015 Presidential elections, and most of them have already given the contest to General Muhammadu Buhari. Some sites and newspapers even go as far as stating that those polls which have given the race to Buhari are run by Presidential aides. Well, the end always justifies the means, a popular saying goes.
Back in June before the Ekiti governorship elections, a host of poll sites and twitter landlords had given the race as a no contest to Kayode Fayemi of APC. But the outcome of the “real polls” proved otherwise and today Governor Fayose is back in Ekiti government house against their projections. The night INEC announced Fayose as winner with a landslide victory, all the journalists and social media bloggers were scampering to find alternative reasons for why Fayemi should lose the elections, and they famously came up with the theory which has now popularly come to be known as a victory secured through “stomach infrastructure”. Gov. Faoyse has soon joined the theatrical stunts and has immediately and officially appointed a Special Adviser on Stomach Infrastructure to deal with this now popular phrase.
At the return of democracy to the nation in 1999, the highest political position zoned to the South-South was the office of Deputy Speaker of the House of Representative. Anyone occupying such position is recognize as the number six citizen in the country in the hierarchical order of political protocol starting from the office of the President. Hon Chibudom Nwuche and Hon Austin Opara, both from Rivers State between (1999 -2007) occupied the position of Deputy Speaker. In the order of political protocol, the South-South came last behind South West (President), North East (Vice President), South East (Senate President), North Central (Deputy Senate President) and North-West (Speaker). However somewhere along the line during this period, destiny was preparing an Otouke born man to catapult the zone from last to the first and most powerful office in the land.
That man panned out to be our current President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. It is stale news by now that Dr. Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan’s political journey ever since he surfaced on the nation’s political turf in 1999 has been unexplainably strewn with what some observers may relate to the hands of the Roman goddess Fortuna. Through his fortunate picking as Deputy Governor to Chief DSP Alamieyeseigha in Bayelsa State to substantial governorship after his principal had been impeached for financial misappropriation to his Vice Presidential journey under late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to his Acting Presidency days after the National Assembly had to adopt“The Doctrine of Necessity” to empower him to act after his boss failed to transmit a letter to them before going for treatment in Saudi Arabia to finally his substantial Presidency has appeared to be an easy ride with little or no political collateral on his path.
Even the 2011 Presidential election, which was the very first election where GEJ would be standing as the leading candidate without appending to a main candidate as running mate is subject to debate as an easy political ride. This to some analyst will attribute to his shoeless story according to some versions of new historians. Now the 2015 Presidential elections is heating up with real challenges before him which demands Mr. President pays in full all the political waivers he had previously received in his political career. But this time it seems the interest on his political loans has risen astronomically that either way if Mr. President negotiates his way out of this impasse will forever seal his name once and for all as a deft political gladiator or a lone distance runner who happened to be at the right place and at the right time. Mind you, the odds for Mr. President to pull off these political stunts are very slim considering his perceived marginal experience and record in past elections on his political resume.
One zone that is note-worthy of political dissection in voting pattern is none other than Mr. President’s political backyard the South-South geopolitical zone. How the leaders and people of this zone will arrive at their choice for the 2015 Presidential elections may be decided on certain permutations. However, some political actors from this zone notably Gov. Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State has already teamed up with the opposition APC party to ensure that power moves up north with a possible compensation with the Vice Presidency position for all his troubles and help. The question already on the lips of many is whether the zone will settle for a less fancy Vice Presidency when they are already on top of the food chain.
A region that lays the golden egg for the nation will be tested between continuing with a fortunate elevation to a throne that became vacant divinely and satisfying a personal political ambition of one man who has made himself very visible on the nation’s political landscape ever since he fortuitously retrieved his political right from his cousin Barr. Celestine Omeiha and then went on to become the Chairman of Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF), a position many believe was very powerful and provided him a platform to launch his ambitions which accumulated in the opposition courting him at the expense of whittling down the relevance of the forum which he still heads a faction.
It is widely understood that in politics there is no permanent friends but interest and that serious horse-trading are perfected even up till the eleventh hour to sway matters for or against candidates and regions. Nevertheless, let us analysis reasons that may persuade the South-South to return GEJ for a second term even if the opposition APC may dangle an alternative carrot before them.
As the bird in hand story goes, the zone already has one of their own securely on the seat with the incumbent power to go with the office. Therefore, it sounds realistic and more appealing to the voters to queue up behind GEJ to continue in 2015 than gamble with Gov. Amaechi’s personal ambitions of Vice President, which would be widely viewed as a step-down by leaders, and voters from the zone. Besides feelers has it that the South-West are hugely likely to grab the Vice Presidential slot under a northern Presidential candidate in the APC. Objectively, even if Gov. Amaechi were to be picked by his party APC in 2015 as a VP candidate, the zone has already benefited immensely ever since their son went to Abuja in terms of projects and federal appointments.
It will feel safe and sure backing GEJ to complete his second term rather than opt to play second fiddle under a northern presidency.
An Amaechi vice presidency will only serve his personal ambitions, as the president whom he serves under will expectedly reverse all sensitive federal appointments back to the north. This was the case with late President Yar’Adua on assumption of office as he entrusted both top Petroleum jobs under the hands of northerners in Alhaji Rilwanu Lukman (Minister of Petroleum) and Engr. Abubakar Lawal Yar’Adua from Katsina State and later Alhaji Mohammed Barkindo from Adamawa State as NNPC GMDs. Then he completed the northern equation by handing over all finance top jobs yet exclusively to northerners by appointing Alhaji Mansur Muhtar as Minister of Finance and Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as CBN Governor. It does not mean that competent hands could not be sourced anywhere from the south, but it only further underlines why different regions agitate for the position of the president.
However, when GEJ came on board, he instinctively handed some key appointments to the south. It is only the position of the president and no other which can influence such advantage. These glaring facts may assuage the leaders of the region to persuade Gov. Amaechi to circumcise his personal ambitions for the collective interest of the zone or better still the people may totally abandon his inordinate ambition as an alternative option.
Diana-Abasi Udoh is a writer, politician, public affairs analyist, lecturer, and agronomist. He tweets from @dian4real.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
