GOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo — A deadly insurgency is sweeping through the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as the M23 rebel group continues its rapid advance.
The rebels have captured the strategic city of Goma and vowed to push further south toward the capital, Kinshasa.
The escalation marks the most significant surge in conflict in the mineral-rich nation in more than a decade, prompting warnings from the United Nations that the region is on the brink of a full-scale war.
The Congolese government has called for mass mobilization in response, with President Félix Tshisekedi pledging to “reconquer every inch of our territory.”
Meanwhile, fears are growing that the violence, which has already displaced over 400,000 people in the last month alone, could spiral into a broader regional conflict involving neighbouring Rwanda.
A War for Control
The conflict in eastern Congo, a region long plagued by instability, intensified in January as fighting between national forces and M23 insurgents, reportedly backed by Rwanda, escalated.
The latest clashes have led to the deaths of several United Nations peacekeepers and raised fresh concerns over security in the volatile region.
After securing control of Goma earlier this week, M23 leader Corneille Nangaa declared that his forces intended to march on Kinshasa.
The group, which first emerged in 2012, has accused the Congolese government of failing to protect the Tutsi minority and has justified its offensive as a means of defending its people.
The Congolese government, however, has described M23’s latest offensive as “a declaration of war” by Rwanda.
Tshisekedi’s office issued a statement on Thursday warning of deteriorating conditions in Goma, saying, “The situation in the city of Goma is dramatic.
Corpses litter the streets, water and electricity have been cut off for several days, and residents cannot get food supplies.”
The worsening crisis has also impacted foreign personnel in the region.
According to Romanian state broadcaster TVR, a contingent of 300 Romanian mercenaries recruited to support the Congolese army was forced to surrender after being overrun by M23 forces, taking refuge in a UN peacekeeping base.
International Reaction and the Risk of Global Fallout
The conflict’s impact extends beyond Congo’s borders, given the country’s vast reserves of critical minerals, including cobalt, a key component in electric vehicle and smartphone batteries.
The DRC is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, and much of its output is controlled by Chinese companies, fueling concerns over supply chain stability.
China has condemned M23’s insurgency, with its ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, warning that the recent developments are “deeply worrying” and pose “the risk of a larger conflict.” Western governments, however, have so far issued only muted responses.
President Donald Trump called the situation a “very serious problem,” while the U.S. State Department has advised American citizens to evacuate.
European nations, meanwhile, are debating whether to take a tougher stance on Rwanda, with Germany cancelling meetings with Rwandan officials and Britain considering a review of its financial support to the country.
Yet despite growing evidence of Rwanda’s involvement in backing M23, the flow of foreign aid to Kigali remains largely unchanged.
Rwanda’s geopolitical significance—serving as a counterweight to Russian influence in Africa and a key security partner in French gas projects in Mozambique—has made Western powers hesitant to take stronger action.
Rwanda’s Role and the Legacy of Regional Conflict
The M23 insurgency is rooted in long-standing ethnic tensions between Rwanda’s Tutsi-led government and Hutu-majority Congo.
Following the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which nearly a million Tutsi and moderate Hutu were slaughtered, large numbers of Tutsi refugees fled into eastern Congo.
The region has remained a flashpoint ever since, with sporadic uprisings and rebel activity contributing to one of the world’s most protracted conflicts.
In 2012, M23 briefly seized Goma before withdrawing under international pressure.
At the time, Rwanda, heavily reliant on foreign aid, faced immediate financial penalties, prompting it to distance itself from the rebels.
However, this time around, observers note a shift in international priorities.
“Rwanda has made itself extremely useful,” said Jason Stearns, a professor at Simon Fraser University in Canada and an expert on conflicts in the Congo.
“For many Western businesses and governments, Rwanda is seen as a stable partner in an otherwise chaotic region.”
Kagame evoked this: “As far as M23 is concerned […], borders drawn during colonial period cut our countries up into pieces. A large part of Rwanda was left out, eastern Congo and south-western Uganda. This is root of the problem. https://t.co/cw2IiziaCE (16/X)
— Jason Stearns (@jasonkstearns) August 21, 2024
Western institutions, including the European Union and U.S.-based sports organisations like the NBA, have increased their investment in Rwanda, despite its alleged ties to M23.
The NBA’s operations in Africa, valued at nearly $1 billion as of 2021, have expanded in Rwanda, where basketball has gained significant popularity.
Uncertain Future
With M23 advancing further into South Kivu province, analysts fear a prolonged conflict that could rival the devastating wars that plagued the DRC between 1996 and 2003, which led to an estimated 3 to 5.5 million deaths, mostly due to disease and malnutrition.
For now, Tshisekedi’s government remains defiant, calling on Congolese citizens to resist the rebels and pledging to take back lost territory.
Yet with the international response appearing limited and M23 showing no signs of halting its offensive, the future of Congo remains deeply uncertain.
